TEST FOR POST HOC FALLACY IN PROPHETIC MINISTRIES

By Rev. Michael Benson Ajayi 

1 Cor 13:9KJV " For we know in part, and we prophesy in part."
        A Prophesy is a declaration of God's divine will and righteous purpose . 2Tim 3:16-17 says, they are profitable for instruction, for reproof and conviction of sin, for correction of error and discipline in obedience, [and] for training in righteousness (in holy living, in conformity to God's will in thought and action), So that the man of God may be complete and proficient, well fitted and thoroughly equipped for every good work. Prophets uphold the moral standards of a society. Thus, prophesies must align with objective and logical faith in order to be valid as truth from God.
       God does not contradict Himself neither does His word . Therefore , a prophet must be well grounded in God's written word to avoid misleading his or her audience. God reveals Himself through His word , 1 Sam 3:21KJV says " And .... the Lord revealed himself to Samuel in Shiloh by the word of the Lord."
      Most modern prophets are subjective in the analysis of God's word preferring to follow dreams and visions which are prone to errors. For instance, a dream about snakes does not necessarily translate into something evil considering the fact that Moses's rod turned into a snake that swallowed those of Pharaoh's magicians, a serpent's image was used to heal the Jews at one time (Num21:8-9) and also we are enjoined to be as wise as serpents. God is against prophesies based on subjective reasoning such as dreams because they are not substantiated by scriptures (Jer.23:27,29) given that dreams can also originate from prophets (Jer.29:8). Persons who feel condemned because of constantly having sex and eating in their dreams often listen to  prophets who speak on these dead acts. They have forgotten that there is no condemnation for those in Christ (Rom8:1) and nothing can separate us from the love of God and above all , we are declared qualified to partake of God's blessings through Christ (Col.1:12-13) therefore, having sex or eating food in dreams cannot stop a person's blessing. Nobody can disqualify him that God has declared qualified. You are qualified for the good life in Christ.
        The subjective analysis of spiritual events based on external manifestations is detrimental to a healthy spiritual growth, Jesus said in Luke 17:20 KJV..."The kingdom of God cometh not with observation:" The word observation is the Greek word 'parateresis' which means: from inspection, i.e. ocular evidence (visions) unfortunately many persons  have been painful ensnared by following 'visions' instead of logical reasoning .
        One of such common traps is Post Hoc Fallacy. It means, literally, “after this therefore because of this.” The post hoc fallacy is committed when it is assumed that because one thing occurred after another, it must have occurred as a result of it. Just because an event follows another does not mean that it was caused by it.
Example
(1) During the visit of pastor John to Port Harcourt three women gave birth to baby boys 

Therefore:
(2) Pastor John is anointed of God to make women pregnant with male children. 

This logic is a post hoc fallacy because it infers a causal correlation based solely on temporal evidence. It does not answer the question on how the women got pregnant before pastor John's visit .Is it that pastor John has the ability to alter the sex of children while in their mother's womb? Imagine the calamity this will cause in an already male dominated world . Biblical prophesies are specific and objective: placing emphasis on God's word and logical faith (1Sam9:27). The preacher who uses Post Hoc is like a gambler using prayers as a dice.   
Prayer does work but not all results are as a result of prayers.A typical example is the circumstance behind the birth of Ishmael in Gen.16:2-5 and the prophetess in Acts 16:16-19. The connection between the prophesy and a given event could result from coincidence, rather than it being the cause (Ecc.9:11). For example, praying that one should not get caught while smuggling cocaine overseas does not mean God answered if one was successful.This theology is the bases behind the superstitious activities in some churches.Many lives have been destroyed through this and it is the bases for bad leadership in underdeveloped nations and it destroys marriages .Post Hoc fallacy is a recipe for disaster , it is against this backdrop that the teaching of the gospel must be encouraged and doctrines scrutinized under the microscope of logical reasoning .
Prayer : Heavenly Father forgive me of my sins against you I believe Jesus Christ died and was raised again for my salvation I receive him as lord and saviour and receive the Holy Ghost and power  to overturn every evil prophetic utterance made against my prosperity and I declare my freedom from the manipulations  of false prophets in Jesus name,

By Rev. Michael Benson Ajayi.

For prayer/counseling +2348035536911,+2348098536911(whatsapp) email:michaelbensonajayi@gmail.com 

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